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Friday, March 14, 2008

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Let's Talk About Forex

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Forex Knowledge
Through studies and research, a trader faces the task of making decisions to put this knowledge and system into practice. Then, how many traders can honestly say they can commit their ranch when the trade is suggested by their own system (given that trading is just a chance game) and let the profit run for weeks and months when their system tells them, and how many can manage to cut the loss as a routine process when the situation arise. It all sounds so easy when saying it but so difficult when doing it affecting real money in the market. I still do not sleep well when I am running position because even if the profits are running into a few hundred dollars and the system is telling you to carry on, there is no guarantee that the profit will turn into a yard or two in a month time, and it may even turn into a loss in a day or two when something unexpected happens. A painstaking process in real sense. The pain is not knowing what will happen in the future and in fear of losing. So at the end of the day, assuming one has decent trading system and market knowledge and decent info, it is ultimately how disciplined and how well that trader can take the pain of making right decisions at the right time that decides the outcome of the trades. Hence I call trading a mind game.

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We�d like to remind you that the higher the credit leverage, the higher is your profit if the fluctuation of the currency rate was anticipated correctly. However, if your anticipation was wrong, your losses will be bigger.

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Each Forex Trading cycle is different from the last one and that is the beauty of the market. It is extremely important to look at the big picture from the distance rather than studying the minute and hourly charts with a microscope. And repeat the whole show again and again ?til it shows the sign of turning in daily or weekly chart. And flip. Good trades to you.
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PIP is nothing special but Price Interest Points. In the forex market, currencies are always priced in pairs. The quoted price is the level where we, acting as the market maker, are willing to buy/sell the currency pair. In the wholesale market, currencies are quoted out to four decimal places, with the last placeholder called a point or a pip. A pip in most currencies is one /10,000th of an exchange rate (in USD/JPY, it is one /100th, likewise you can find for others).

More Forex Day Trading Info

Forex - Will a Snapback in Philly Fed take the EUR/USD Through 1.25?

Thu, 19 Oct 2006 01:10:00 GMT
DailyFX Fundamentals 10-18-06

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.



Headline News About Forex

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Win Big Time In The Forex market With This Amazing Forex Strategy System II

Choosing a Forex Broker

By Grace Cheng

As you may already know, foreign exchange (Forex/FX) is an unregulated market that is not traded on an exchange, which means that prices you see and get from one broker could vary from those of another broker. There are mainly two types of brokers. One type is an ECN (Electronic Communications Network) and another a Market-Maker.

Market-makers "make" or set the prices on their systems based on what they think is best for themselves as the counter-party. This is because every time you sell, they must buy, and when you buy, they must sell to you. This is why they can give you a fixed spread since they are setting both the bid and the ask price. Many of them will then try to "hedge" or "cover" your order by passing it on to someone else; however, some may decide to hold your order, and thus trade against you. This can result in a conflict of interest between the retail trader (you) and the market-maker.

ECNs, on the other hand, pass on prices from several banks and market-makers, as well as from the other traders in the ECN, and display the best bid/ask prices based on these input. This is why sometimes you can get no spread on ECNs, especially in very liquid currency pairs. How do ECNs make money then? They do so by charging you a fixed commission for each transaction.

Here are some of the pros and cons of ECNs and market-makers:

Market-Makers

Pros:

* Usually give free charting software and news feed
* Prices can be "smoother" and less volatile than ECN prices (this can be a con if you are scalping or trading very short term)
* Often have a more user-friendly trading and analysis interface

Cons:

* They may trade against you. In that case, there will be a conflict of interest between you and them
* The price they offer you may be worse than what you could get on an ECN
* It is possible that they may trigger stops or not let your trade reach your profit target levels by manipulating prices
* During news, there will usually be a large amount of slippage; their systems may also lock up or not allow order placing during times of high volatility
* Many of them discourage scalping and put scalpers on "manual execution" which means their orders may not get filled at the price they want

Examples of some market-makers:

http://www.goforex.net/forex-broker-list.htm#MMECNs

* Pros: You can usually get better bid/ask prices since they come from several sources
* Variable spreads between bid and ask may give no spread or tiny spreads at times
* If they are a true ECN, they will not be trading against you but will pass on your orders to a bank or another customer on the other end of the transaction.
* You will be able to offer a price between the bid and ask with a chance of it getting filled
* If they support Stop-Limit orders, you can prevent slippage during news by making sure that your order either gets filled at the price you want or not at all
* Prices may be more volatile which will be better for scalping

Cons:

* Many do not offer integrated charting
* Many do not offer integrated news
* Many of the trading platforms are less user-friendly
* Because of variable spreads (between bid and ask,) it may be more difficult to calculate stop loss and profit target in pips beforehand.

It is important that you carefully look into the pros and cons of each broker before choosing the one which best suits your needs. You may also wish to have several broker accounts to mitigate the risks, and so that you can compare bid/ask prices and trade on the broker with the best prices for the direction you wish to trade. Because of the unregulated nature of forex, US brokers are not required to keep your money in an untouchable account that only you can have access to if they were to collapse. As customers of Refco (was one of the world's largest brokers) found out, their unprotected accounts made them unsecured creditors, and thus are less likely to get their money back than those who had given secured loans to Refco. What this means is that the customers' money was used to pay other creditors.

The moral of the story is this:

Deposit as little money with your broker as you need for trading, and withdraw your profits when they exceed a certain amount. Keep the rest of your trading capital in your own bank accounts which are probably government-insured.

http://www.gracecheng.com/

Some Quick Forex Information

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As a rule of thumb, 20 MAs in 8 hour, day, week and month are useful for its directional tendency and as a resistance and support point. Not sure how much it is useful in daytrading though.
Please have a look at Eur/Usd and Usd/Jpy weekly 10 RSI and Aud/Usd monthly 10 RSI "patterns", not levels. Then you will find out primitive things work better when coupled with even simpler MAs. And RSI is useful "only in these weekly and monthly time scale" as far as I can see. You can ignore RSI in short-term scales as the inventor of RSI, Wilder, told us long ago.

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In the process of trading you can create pending positions, that will be activated when the price reaches the agreed level (open price). When creating and closing orders, a temporary delay occurs, and lasts for about 30 to 40 seconds. When you make an inquiry, you are given a real market price, which is the current price at the moment of proposal, not at the moment of inquiry.
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Activities by professional currency managers, generally on behalf of a pool of funds, have also become a factor moving the market. While professional managers may behave independently and view the market from a unique perspective, most, if not all, are at least aware of important technical chart points in each major currency. As major support or resistance levels approach, the behavior of the market becomes more technically oriented and the reactions of many managers are often predictable and similar. These market periods may result in sudden and dramatic price swings as substantial amounts of capital are invested in similar positions.
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Forex Software Stories

Air France-KLM face price-fix probe

Wed, 12 Mar 2008 07:45:32 EDT
The European Union questioned the airline as part of an investigation into possible price-fixing on flights to Japan.




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Forex And Forex Trading Related News

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How to Value Currency Pairs

By: James Theiss

Typically, in the FOREX market, currencies are traded in pairs. For example, Euro/US Dollar or US Dollar/Japanese Yen. Whenever you trade currencies online, you are then, buying one currency and selling another. Currency pairs are abbreviated. The above pairs would be EUR/USD and USD/JPY. The currency on the left is called the base currency, and the one on the right is the cross currency.

The value of a currency pair is determined by the strength or weakness of the base currency in relation to the cross currency. The base currency value is always 1. That means when you see a quote of 1.4652 for the EUR/USD, its value means 1 Euro will buy 1.4652 dollars. The next day you may see a quote for the EUR/USD of 1.4725. If you listen to the financial news you will hear them say something along the lines of, "the Euro gained strength against the Dollar today", or "the Dollar fell today against the Euro". In pocketbook english, that simply means it takes more dollars today to buy 1 Euro than yesterday.

Let's say you have an online FOREX account and bought the EUR/USD yesterday at the above price of 1.4652 and today you sold, or closed out your trade at 1.4725. That would leave a profit of 73 pips. What the heck is a pip you might ask. Well a pip has two definitions but they both mean the same thing, dollar wise at least: Price Interest Point and Percentage In Point. I have never been able to get a clear difference in the definitions no matter who I have asked, and don't really worry about it anymore because, like I said, they mean the same thing dollar wise.

When you trade currencies online you will have to open an account with a forex dealer. You can open either a standard account or a mini account. In the standard account a pip is worth approximately $10 dollars, and in the mini account it is worth approximately $1 dollar. It used to be the pip was the smallest unit of value in the FOREX market. Today however, many forex dealers quote in tenths of a pip. They have carried out the quote one extra decimal number to give better and more accurate spreads. So the above quote might have read 1.47253, where the 3 is the tenth of a pip. So its value would be either $3 dollars or $.30 cents depending on the type of account you have.

You may have noticed that I said pip values are approximately $1 dollar. That's because each currency pair has its own pip value. The true value is determined by mathematical formulas and the exchange rate of the currency pair. Some pip values are fixed and others fluctuate slightly as one currency rises or falls in value relative to the other currency in the pair.

Currency trades are made in fixed dollar amounts called lots. One lot in a standard account is equal to $1000, which controls $100,000. One lot in the mini account is equal to $100, and controls $10,000. Both standard and mini accounts typically have a 1% margin which allows the FOREX trader 100 to 1 leverage on their investment dollars.

If you trade currencies online, the ultimate goal is to capture as many pips as you can, and not get bogged down in the details of what the exact value of each currency pair is. Unless you are interested in becoming an economist or some such thing, the information presented here is more than enough to let you get on with putting as many pips in your account as possible.

James is a successful online currency trader and also runs the popular website www.todayscurrencytrading.com

Forex Snippets

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Let�s see some more information about Spread. As with all financial products, forex quotes include terms like 'bid' and 'ask�'. The 'bid', in its simplest terms is the price at which a dealer is willing to buy (and clients can sell) the base currency in exchange for the counter currency. The 'ask' is the price at which dealer will sell (and clients can buy) the base currency in exchange for the counter currency. The difference between the bid and the ask price is referred to as the spread. The spread defines the trader�s cost, which can be recovered with a favorable currency move in the market. The value of a pip is determined by the pair of currencies being traded, the rate at which the currency pair is trading and the size of the position being traded.

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With proper timing, foreign currency exchange trading can pay off big. The world's financial markets have a great deal of volatilty built in, due to the dynamic nature of their design. With millions of participants and trillions of dollars at stake daily, currency trading represents a fast-paced opportunity to earn very good money, provided you learn a profitable trading strategy.
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The primary factors influencing exchange rates include the balance of payments, the state of the economy, implications drawn from chart analysis as well as political and psychological factors.

All The Latest News From The What Is Forex World

European Mid Morning Update 12th March 2008

Wed, 12 Mar 2008 03:17:31 -0500
Lack of influential releases and next week's FOMC will maintain the Dollar's gradual recovery

Releases from Europe:

February Forecast Actual
French CPI (MoM) +0.4% +0.2%
French CPI (YoY) +3.0% +2.8%

Slightly better than expected CPI figure from France but with oil well above $100 pb no one is taking this as a sign that inflation has peaked. This is very unlikely to have any impact today.


The following economic releases are due today:

January
U.K. Visible Trade Deficit GBP -7.50bn
U.K. Total Trade Deficit GBP -4.60bn
Euro-zone Industrial Production (MoM) +0.4%
Euro-zone Industrial Production (YoY) +2.6%

March
Swiss ZEW Survey: Expectations
Bloomberg Global Confidence


Overnight euphoria following the central banks’ announcement of a temporary injection of over US$200 bn funding to allow primary bond dealers to swap the mortgage-backed securities that they can't currently sell for highly liquid Treasuries has abated somewhat in Asia.

Without a doubt it is a good alternative, and probably addition, to simply cutting interest rates. The market is now talking of a small rate cut from the Fed at next week’s FOMC meeting but most participants are still talking of 50bp.

Already traders are talking of selling pressure again and while there may be some it shouldn’t reach new lows with the prospect of the FOMC meeting on Tuesday next week. That in itself will restrain the market from pushing strongly one way or the other.

However, the market doesn’t like uncertainty and that provides a window for the Dollar to continue its recovery, shallow as it may well be.

There is little on the agenda to provide any great surprises either today.

Bottom picking should be the name of the game today but the problems with this is the risk of a fairly sizeable pullback following yesterday’s gains. However, over the next few days we should see the Dollar reach 104.63-80 Dollar-Yen, 1.5072-1.5144 Euro-Dollar, 1.0183-1.0215 Swissie and 2.0125-45 Pound and these should provide a cap for additional losses.


Note important support and resistance areas:

USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD
Res: 104.00-22 1.5460-94 1.0480-09 2.0209-18
Res: 103.20-57 1.5388-13 1.0330-52 2.0149-65

Spt: 102.48-70 1.5281-06 1.0242-82 2.0050-80
Spt: 101.93-23 1.5144-88 1.0147-83 1.9949-68

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